Confirmation by Explanation: A Bayesian Justification of IBE

Abstract

We provide a novel Bayesian justification of inference to the best explanation (IBE). More specifically, we present conditions under which explanatory considerations can provide a significant confirmatory boost for hypotheses that provide the best explanation of the relevant evidence. Furthermore, we show that the proposed Bayesian model of IBE is able to deal naturally with the best known criticisms of IBE such as van Fraassen’s ‘bad lot’ argument.

Marko Tešić

Research Associate